... Low VIX readings, in fact, are indicative of complacency, which almost always leads to declines that surprise the market. For those interested in what the number mathematically represents, here it is in the most simple of terms. Given the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global markets, ‘fear’ certainly feels like an apt word to reach for when attempting any sort of market forecast right now. VIX continues to plumb new lows. VIX/S&P 500 in 2011. A low VIX typically means that option prices are lower. On April 12, 2010 the VIX fell as low as 15.23. When they expect low volatility, they also assume rising stock prices. If the index is higher, limited future volatility would be expected. A low VIX doesn’t necessarily mean the stock market is nearing a top—or even a speed bump. … The predictive nature of the VIX makes it a measure of implied volatility, not one that is based off historical data or […] The VIX is back to the low levels we saw last summer/fall before a nasty decline ensued. On the other hand, a low VIX value of less than 30 suggests that the market will be range-bound and there is complacency among investors. The VIX index is currently sitting at its first percentile range. Does a Falling VIX Mean the Worst is Over? What does reliability mean? Example, if the VIX is currently at 15. How does the Volatility Index (VIX) work? In the wake of Twitter rants and and nuclear missile tests, the stock market has succeeded in doing something it hasn't done in almost 2.5 decades.The VIX is at its lowest point in 24 years. SP 500 e-mini futures have had 13 straight trading days without a down day, Next week's at the money SPY put options closed at an implied volatility of 7.86%, first time I can ever remember SPY options trading below 8% implied vol.So what does t In the simplest possible terms, it means that the market expects daily moves in the equity markets to be around four times larger than normal. Does VIX Predict Future Volatility?” provides market participants with ... price changes over 30-day periods after a low VIX, after a high VIX, and after a normal VIX. So what does that mean? On April 20, 2011 the VIX moved as low as 14.30. Instead, the high VIX value is merely a representation of the fact that the market expects a sharp trend in momentum, either upward or downward. Traders are not as likely to be buying insurance on stocks. To understand, first we need to learn more about what the VIX is and isn’t. What does a low VIX mean? They do not expect a lot of volatility in the markets and feel more confident. VIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options.It is calculated and disseminated on a real-time basis by the CBOE, and is often referred to as the fear index or fear gauge.. Does a low VIX equate to a market pullback? Naively, if the VIX index is low, one would expect the volatility in the market several months in the future to be low. 1) Just because the VIX is low doesn’t necessarily mean the market can’t continue to move higher — a lesson illustrated vividly by various data points above and the entire 2004-2006 period. The VIX is based on data collected by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).Each day the CBOE calculates a figure for a "synthetic option" based on prices paid for puts and calls.The computation of the VIX was changed in 2003 and is based on the S&P 500 option series. So the level it’s at today is very, very normal. A low VIX in 2010 and 2011 always spelled trouble for stocks. Net VIX exposure is sitting near its all-time low. A VIX of 10 would mean that, collectively, they believe that it will move at the rate of only 10% per year. The VIX has tended to explode upwards in response to a sharp decline in the S&P 500 Index (SPX). …the VIX has spent over half of its time over the past two decades (from 1992 through Tuesday) between 10-20. VIX (NYSEARCA:VXX) traders shorting the VIX have had a great year so far, VIX Trader included, but one can only wonder how long can this party go on? Over its long history, the S&P 500 has moved a little under 1% each day, on average. But the corollary scenario of the market falling in response to low VIX levels has not tended to occur. What does it mean for you? “Be careful if you think the VIX has nowhere to go but higher”….the VIX has a history of remaining depressed during long periods of time — like they did between 2004 and 2007 when stocks slowly drifted higher. A Really Low VIX Doesn’t Mean It Can’t Go Lower. What a week for the VIX...new 7 year low, now trading with a 10 handle (closed at 10.73), with a two day drop of 16% post ECB announcement last Thursday. Definition: The Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. While we know that the average VIX price is ~19.50, that does not necessarily mean that that translates to “normal” stock market volatility. VIX -- The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, as it is better known, is used by stock and options traders to gauge the market's anxiety level. VIX (blue, left axis) vs. S&P 500 (red, right axis) So why does this matter? The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of expected price fluctuations in the S&P 500 Index options over the next 30 days. Devised by the Chicago Reading VIX: Does VIX Predict Future Volatility? Woodshedder Sun Aug 19, ... You’ll note the Trading Markets and WSJ posts simply note that the VIX is low, that it has been low before, and that it could go lower, or not. When the VIX moves out of complacent territory and back towards its mean, then the market is … See below a line chart of the VIX using daily data going back to 1990: *Data as of 10/3/2017 We could interpret that to mean that we have 30 days of low volatility ahead of us; well at least that’s what the traders of the SPX (S&P 500 Index) are leading us to believe. What is the VIX and does its recent drop mean the worst is over? It's just … At VIX Trader, we don’t care because we plan to feast when volatility spikes, as it inevitably will, but here are the facts as they stand today. The VIX closed at a low today, not seen since July 7th, 2011. And if the index is very high, extreme volatility would be expected. However, a high VIX index does not automatically mean stocks are bearish. While there are other factors at work, in most cases, a high VIX reflects increased investor fear and a low VIX suggests complacency. Based on Exhibit 2, ... based on recent volatility and VIX, which comprises first, a mean reversion adjustment and second, the difference between VIX and expected VIX. What does a VIX of 80 mean? VIX and Stock-Market Behavior . November 2017 INDEX INVESTMENT STRATEGY 3 500 realized volatility3 between Dec. 31, 2016, and Nov. 22, 2017. Which, as it happens, is exactly what the VIX is designed to do. In fact a good portion (about 1/3) of the S&P gains over the last 10 years have come under these conditions. Low VIX is not a causal factor for an SPX collapse, but an SPX collapse is a causal factor for high VIX. What is the VIX and what does it mean? What does the number mean? Ron DeLegge, ... Low VIX readings, in fact, are indicative of complacency, which almost always leads to declines that surprise the market. The S&P 500 topped on April 26 and dropped 17% thereafter. With VIX around 24, just above the long-term average of 19, many investors are positioning for volatility to fall even lower—perhaps commencing a new era of low volatility. What does a low VIX mean for stocks? VIX/S&P 500 in 2010. Since the VIX level at any point may be naively interpreted as a prediction for the With the VIX inching lower again on Friday, investors and market watchers are at odds over what factors are driving ultra-low volatility and what it might portend for the markets. There is also a misconception that the VIX value is a one-for-one estimation of the percentage change expected in the S&P 500. The drop from the mid-30's on December 24th to the low teens in less than three months time is historic. I think we can dig deeper than that. To sum up - just because the VIX is “low” doesn’t mean the market is about to fall. The same top and drop scenario happened in 2011. The VIX represents the S&P 500 index +/- percentage move, annualized for one standard deviation. Derived from the price inputs of the S&P 500 index options, it provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments.What does this mean to us as individual investors and traders, and how can the […] This is one indicator that doesn’t work as well on bottoms as it does on tops. Spikes in the VIX and outlier days, drive up that average. VIX Spike Could Mean Near-Term Stock Weakness Not only has the VIX doubled year-to-date, it has doubled off its low over the past month. 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